SpaceX’s ‘out-of-this-world’ valuation supported by its rocket launch ‘moat,’ says Wolfe Research
SpaceX ‘s $1.77 trillion valuation has had many on Wall Street scratching their heads, but the dominance of the company’s launch business supports the massive headline number, according to one Wall Street firm. Launch is the core of SpaceX’s business, offering “compelling unit economics everywhere else,” Wolfe Research wrote in a Friday note to clients, where it initiated the stock at an outperform with a $175 price target. The target represents nearly 30% upside from the stock’s debut price. Wolfe noted that SpaceX pretty much has a monopoly when it comes to launch. “Is there a bigger moat to exploit than having a near-monopoly on escaping earth’s gravity?” analyst Myles Walton at Wolfe wrote. SpaceX performs five out of every six U.S. space launches, according to a 2025 report from the Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Oppenheimer initiated coverage on SpaceX this week with a buy rating and a price target of $190 for the next 12 to 18 months, implying a 40% increase from the IPO price of $135 . New Street Research started their coverage on the company with a year-ahead $165 price target, predicting a 22% gain off the IPO price. Rocket reusability gives SpaceX a cost advantage that helps maintain its dominance. Reuse is a big part of the strategy following Friday’s initial public offering, Wolfe analysts said. “Successful reusability of Starship is the single most important value unlock,” Walton said, adding that cost efficiencies will also be a key for SpaceX’s AI business as it competes with OpenAI and Anthropic, which are also expected to go public this year. “We don’t expect SpaceX to out-innovate Anthropic or OpenAI on the model side, but we expect SpaceX to build a cost advantage into the compute end game through verticalization and space access,” Walton wrote. Correction: Myles Walton is the lead analyst covering SpaceX at Wolfe Research.
